Do Police Make Too Many Arrests? The Effect of Enforcement Pullbacks on Crime

Do reductions in arrests increase crime? We study line-of-duty deaths of police officers, events that impact police behavior through heightened fear but do not directly impact civilian behavior. Officer deaths cause significant short-term reductions in all arrest types, with the largest reductions in arrests for lower-level offenses. In contrast, we find no evidence of an increase in crime or a change in victim reporting through 911 calls. Moreover, we fail to find evidence of a threshold level of arrest decline magnitude or duration beyond which crime increases. Our findings suggest that enforcement activity can be reduced at the margin without incurring public safety costs.

Read >> Do Police Make Too Many Arrests? The Effect of Enforcement Pullbacks on Crime (Published December 2021)